This was directly copied from another blog (Kim) from
My Chinese Dream. I thought it was so helpful for me and others reading this blog who are not in the IA universe .....
With ALL the RUMORS that are going around right now about adopting from China, I thought I would post this that I read today(thanks
Dawn for the heads-up). This was written by and taken off
Brian Stuy's blog. Brian has 3 adopted daughters from China and writes interesting research articles....he can also do research on your adopted daughter such as Finding Ads in the newspapers.
A cursory view of nearly every adoption blog and newsgroup shows that the air is abuzz with speculation and rumors of what the future holds for China adoption. Although there is significant data and history on which accurate assessments can be based, it seems that nearly everyone is at a loss to explain why things are changing so dramatically.As adoptive families, it is helpful to assess the current situation with tools learned in basic Economics 101. It is clear that China's international adoption program is experiencing a supply "crunch", which is to say that there are too few children available for immediate adoption to waiting foreign families. The immediate cause of this crunch was the Hunan stoppage that began in December 2005, and is just now ending. But a longer view shows that it has been building for years.It is a misperception to think that this situation appeared overnight. In fact, a glance at the Yahoogroups dedicated to the various orphanages shows that each year orphanages have been added to the International Adoption program to bring in additional supply of children. This was done to compensate for the falling abandonment rates in the existing member orphanages. The goal is to keep the supply as constant and predictable as possible, and it has worked pretty well.It is well-known that three Provinces provide a majority of the children adopted through the IA program -- Guangdong, Jiangxi and Hunan. When Hunan adoptions were paused in late December 2005, it took 20-25% of the adoptable children out of the supply pool. China's options were limited, especially since this was a very temporary problem. It was forced to let the "demand" back up, leading to longer and longer referral wait times. The DTC to referral wait times now stand at approximately 14 months.With Hunan Province now coming back on line (we should see substantial Hunan referrals in the next month or so), the supply-demand equation should normalize. But China still faces a demand imbalance. Hunan doesn't totally explain the longer DTC referral wait times, just a portion of it. Thus, China is taking further actions to bring things into line.It seems likely at this point that one step China will make in the near-term is the dramatic reduction, if not outright elimination, of the singles program. China has had ambivalent attitudes towards this program for years, and has taken periodic steps to reduce the number of singles that could adopt. This ambivalence stems from the cultural belief that children should be raised by two-parent families, coupled with the desire that China's children not be raised by homosexuals. Letters of Declarations (required by single applicants declaring their heterosexuality) aside, it is widely believed that gay parents continue to apply for adoption. Thus, it should come as no surprise to anyone that the first step to reducing the number of families permitted to adopt would be the elimination of the singles program (A compromise solution to outright elimination of these families would be the requirement that they apply for a waiting child).Additional restrictions seem likely, perhaps health restrictions, income requirements, lowering upper-age limits for parents, and other means of reducing the number of families eligible to adopt. Additionally, new orphanages will probably be brought into the IA program. These changes are intended to bring the supply-demand equation back into balance.But the referral wait time will not be brought back below 12 months, the stated goal of the CCAA, because simply put the longer wait times work to China's favor. As wait times increase, more families look to alternative options, and one option that will be presented in ever more favorable light is the waiting children program. Expedited referrals will be used to improve the attractiveness of this program, and many families will opt to adopt a Special Needs child, thereby reducing the demand for the healthy young children that are becoming increasingly more difficult for China to supply.If viewed through the prism of simple supply-demand models, the events of the last 12 months become understandable. Often as waiting families we focus on each months referals, feverishly projecting the past to try and ascertain the future (one website has projected the wait time for a family submitting their paperwork today at 2 1/2 years!). By stepping back, we can see the larger picture, and see how the steps being taken by China will impact how adoptions are done. With most of China's orphanages now in modern, third-generation facilities, the "need" for monies derived from the IA program is diminishing. It still exists, and for that reason the IA program will continue. But we must realize that it is China's right, and perogative, to alter the program as they see fit to insure the life-long well-being of her children.
Land of the Midnight Sun, Vikings, Trolls, Friends and Family.
I just "celebrated" my 6th month LID anniversary with a little lump in my throat. Last year when I started my adoption, the referrals were taking 6 months or so.... you know the rest of that story..... SO as each monumental holiday passed through 2005, I would say " Next year at Halloween, I will have Tate..... Thanksgiving, Christmas... blah blah...."
Once upon a time there was a family of like a zillions cousins (47 to ge exact) who grew up and had kids of their own, who had kids and so as not to let their tribe disappear, they had large families..... LOUD. FUN. TALENTED. but tons of them. One day after many years, the Matriarch decided that it was time once again to gather all together. Far and wide these cousins gathered bringing salads, cookies, brownies, baked beans and chicken. They fested and played and chatted and got reacquainted with each other. And in the mist of this fun, there was one girl cousin who did not add to these numbers.....for she had not had children. She was much loved and cherished by these cousins, and there was a loud cry that went far and wide when this loved cousin decide to adopt a daughter from China. The cousins cried "Bring her a daughter from China!!! Everyone is welcome to join our tribe!!!" The long wait between the proclamation had passed, and at this gathering everyone anticipated the late arrival of this beloved cousin, with the wonderful news of a babe soon in her arms. Each one of the cousins approached lovingly and hugged and asked. Each one of the cousins were interested and supportive.....not one cousin professed that they knew a thing about International Adoption, or had stories to share of others. Each cousin had words of love and hope..... And the girl cousin went home with love in her heart and renewed hope that her dream of adding to this tribe will become true. And she lived happily ever after that night blogging about this great time.
